NEWS: Implications of South Korean Impeachment
Dear AKBC members,
As you may have seen over the weekend there have been advancements in the South Korean political landscape, with President Yoon Suk Yeol impeached on Saturday 14 December. In a press conference held on Monday 16 December, the ruling party (PPP) leader Han Dong-hoon has resigned following his support of Yoon’s impeachment.
What has happened since our last email?
We have broken down the timeline since President Yoon’s martial law declaration was overturned on Wednesday 4 December.
Saturday 7 December:
Opposition politicians (including the leading Democratic Party) tabled the impeachment motion, needing the support of two-thirds (200) of South Korea’s 300-member National Assembly for it to pass
Members of President Yoon’s party (People Power Party) walked out ahead of the vote on Saturday saying they hoped he would voluntarily resign
As a result, it was impossible to meet the required quorum for the impeachment vote
A second special counsel investigation bill took place against first lady Kim Keon Hee, who has recently been accused of exerting inappropriate influence but it failed to pass
Sunday 8 December:
Ex-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun was taken into custody at a Seoul detention facility after undergoing an investigation by prosecutors. In Kim’s impeachment motion document, the Democratic Party and other opposition parties accused him of proposing martial law to President Yoon
President Yoon accepted Kim’s resignation offer on Thursday 12 December
Thursday 12 December:
President Yoon continued to defend his martial law decision, claiming he was trying to save the country and vowed to “fight until the last moment with the people.”
Saturday 14 December:
The second impeachment vote was successful, with 204 members voting in favour, 85 against, with three abstentions and eight votes ruled invalid. All 300 lawmakers in the National Assembly voted on the motion, which required a two-thirds (200 of 300 votes) majority to pass
Included in the 204 members voting in favour of impeachment, a total of 12 People Power Party members supported the impeachment — four more than the eight required to reach 200 votes.
What happens next?
President Yoon has been impeached by the National Assembly and is now suspended from exercising his powers as President. Now, the decision goes to the Constitutional Court and they have up to 180 days to decide whether the impeachment motion is constitutional. During this time, the Prime Minister of Korea Han Duck-soo, serves as acting president under South Korean law. However, Han Duck-soo also faces his own political problems as he is being investigated over his role in the martial law decision.
If the impeachment is confirmed by the Constitutional Court, Yoon will become the second South Korean president to be removed from office by impeachment after Park Geun-hye, the country’s first female leader.
Acting chief justice of the Constitutional Court, Moon Hyung-bae, said in a statement Saturday that a meeting will take place on Monday 16 December to discuss the case schedule, adding that the process will be conducted “swiftly and fairly.”
History of impeachment in Korea
South Korea has a history of impeachment proceedings, with two heads of state previously impeached by the National Assembly: Roh Moo-hyun in 2004 (who was reinstated after the Constitutional Court did not uphold the impeachment) and Park Geun-hye (박근혜) in 2016. Then-president Park Geun-hye was ultimately impeached by lawmakers over corruption allegations, removed from office by the Constitutional Court, jailed and later pardoned by President Moon Jae-In.
Who are the key players?
Han Duck-soo: Han Duck-soo, now South Korea’s acting president after Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment, is a highly experienced leader who has worked under five presidents from different political sides. Known for his calm and rational approach, Han faces tough challenges, including managing the political crisis, dealing with threats from North Korea, and stabilising the economy, all while being investigated for his involvement in Yoon's controversial martial law attempt.
Han Dong-hoon: Han Dong-hoon is the leader of South Korea’s ruling People Power Party (PPP). He has called for President Yoon Suk Yeol to step down amid impeachment proceedings. This marks a significant shift, as Han previously supported Yoon but changed his stance after learning of controversial arrests during martial law. His reversal has raised speculation that ruling party lawmakers could back the impeachment motion. In a press conference held just now, Mr Han has announced his resignation.
Lee Jae-myung: Lee Jae-myung is the South Korean main opposition leader. He has risen to prominence through his dedication to progressive policies and workers' rights. Starting his career as a labor lawyer, he entered politics in the mid-2000s and quickly advanced within the Democratic Party. Despite narrowly losing the 2022 presidential election to Yoon Suk Yeol, Lee remains a central figure in South Korean politics, leading his party to significant legislative victories and consistently opposing Yoon’s government.
An Overview of the Democratic Party in Korea
The Democratic Party (DP) is the major left-leaning political party in Korea. Yoon’s predecessor was the from the DP. Currently, the DP holds 170 of the 300 seats of the National Assembly - a majority. The leader of the Democratic Party is Lee Jae-myung (이재명) and the floor leader is Park Chan-dae. Lee has lost the presidential election to Yoon by 0.15% in 2022. Currently, Lee is facing corruption charges for violating the election law by making false public statements. If he is convicted, he will be barred from running the next presidential election.
What are implications for AKBC members if the Democratic Party comes into rule?
While there are still a number of steps to go through before a new government is elected, we encourage AKBC members to conduct research and be prepared for the next Korean government. If the Constitutional Court upholds the impeachment decision and the Democratic Party is elected, we can expect some policy shifts in the following areas:
North Korea policy
Under a DP President, it is likely that North Korea policy would prioritise restoring peace on the Korean Peninsula through diplomacy rather than military displays. The Democratic Party would likely advocate reopening inter-Korean dialogue channels, emphasising practical multilateral diplomacy over ideological approaches. Their vision centres on “peace as the strongest form of security.”
Energy policy
The Democratic Party-led administration would prioritise a rapid transition to renewable energy, coupled with systemic reforms to address climate challenges, enhance energy efficiency, and position South Korea as a leader in global green technology. This would likely mark a decisive shift away from the nuclear and LNG-centered energy policies of the current administration.
Foreign affairs
According to the Washington Post, South Korea’s political crisis is putting its alliance with the U.S. and cooperation with Japan at risk. This instability comes as the U.S. prepares for President-elect Donald Trump, making it harder to work together on issues like North Korea and China. If Lee Jae-myung becomes president, progress in improving South Korea-Japan relations and regional partnerships could slow down, affecting key achievements in U.S. foreign policy.
Next Steps
We are now waiting for the Constitutional Court to rule to determine if the impeachment is upheld. If the impeachment is upheld, an election will be called within 60 days. We encourage AKBC members to keep abreast of the developments, and understand the next administrations early priorities and policy agenda.
In a broader context of the Korea-US relationship, the timing of these political events is unfavourable, with President Trump commencing office on January 21. With it expected that no Korean President will be in place by then, Korea will be at a disadvantage compared to other allies and partners of the US, who will be angling to meet early with President Trump to develop a relationship with the new US administration.
More information and references
BBC:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c1wq025v421t
South Korea MPs vote to impeach Yoon Suk Yeol over martial law attempt
CNN: South Korea’s parliament votes to impeach president over martial law debacle | CNN
Kim Yong-hyun: South Korean prosecutors detain ex-defense chief over martial law imposition | CNN
NBC: South Korean president is impeached over martial law declaration
Kyunghyang Shinmoon: https://www.khan.co.kr/article/202406191623001
SK eNews: https://www.skenews.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=39177